IT HAS been easy to forget over the last week, but Britain is a relatively trivial 2.4% of the global economy. But even before the referendum, there were worries about global growth, particularly during the market wobble of January and February.
The outlook has improved since then, but the picture is still mixed. American GDP growth, having been been very weak in the first quarter, looks set for a solid 0.7% gain in the second quarter (an annualised 2.7% on the Atlanta Fed indicator). Although the latest non-farm payrolls were disappointing, that may be because the employment market is tightening. There are tentative signs of a pick-up in wages; in the last three months, private sector wage growth has been more than 3%. Two of my favourite indicators show mixed results. Railroad freight traffic is down 3.9% over the last year in the latest week, although energy played a big part in this (the decline of fracking); <a…Continue reading