WHEN the British election started, a victory for Theresa May looked a nailed-on certainty. The Conservative lead was as high as 20 percentage points and the party was 1/20 on to claim the most seats. But a poorly-run campaign means that the gap has narrowed; the latest from Survation had the Conservatives with just a one-point lead.
The betting markets still assume that the Tories will win, albeit with a majority of 70 or so rather than the 100 plus that was assumed earlier in the campaign. But what if the gambling markets are wrong, as they were about Brexit and Trump? Nate Silver, the US polling guru, argues that the <a…Continue reading